Signs of growth are welcome, but the overall picture remains mixed

Growth Commission member Ewen Stewart has issued the following response to the GDP figures for the third quarter of 2026 covering the three months to September 2026 that have been issued this morning:

“While welcoming the signs of growth in today’s GDP numbers, the overall picture remains mixed: 0.7% growth in the third quarter of the year is an acceleration driven by growth in the service sector, increased public spending and household spending.

“However, the manufacturing and construction sectors are still struggling, with construction output falling by 0.7% and manufacturing continuing its near stagnant trend.

“On the implied assumption of a static population which is subject to potential revision, per capita GDP rose by 0.7% over the quarter.

“But it is vital to guard against complacency because policy choices by the Government are continuing to undermine key sectors. We note that interest rates have recently been raised in an attempt to stifle accelerating inflation and energy price increases are continuing to hit families and businesses alike. Moreover, while wage growth is marginally ahead of the CPI measure of inflation, the outlook for employment growth remains at best mixed.

“In summary, one cheer for some growth but two pips of concern over rising taxes and increasing energy prices.”