About The Growth Commission
The Growth Commission is a non-partisan group of twelve international independent economists focused on how to deliver economic growth in the G7 and other leading Western nations.
The Commissioners bring a wide breadth of experience and economic expertise to the table, hailing from the UK, the United States, Japan, Mexico and India, with the central focus of their work being to model the effect on GDP per capita growth of policy and fiscal proposals. You can learn more about the Commissioners here.
We hone in on growth as measured by GDP per capita because that is the best metric for judging overall living standards, providing the truest measure of whether people should feel richer or poorer over time.
Far too many bodies analysing economic policy use static models which assume every tax rise generates income for government and that any tax cut will cost public services money. The Growth Commission only uses dynamic models which, crucially, assess the behavioural and investment changes that occur when changes are made to the tax and regulatory system. We have developed tried and tested bespoke micro and macro models which ensure that we can provide the most complete picture of the economic effects of policy changes.
Our Commissioners regularly appear in the national and international media through the publication of op-eds and doing interviews with a range of TV and radio outlets. You can find links to all their key interventions via our X feed and there are numerous clips of significant interviews they have done on our YouTube channel. They also engage directly with politicians and policy-makers, both at a political level with ministers and their opposite numbers, and through interactions with officials in government departments on both sides of the Atlantic.
The Commission’s vital and unique work is funded entirely through the generosity of our donors. If you would like to support us with a donation, please get in touch.
The Case for Growth
Over recent decades developed Western countries have experienced an alarming trend of declining growth in income per person. Low growth has become widely accepted as the ‘new normal’ and a sense of fatalist inevitability has reigned, while the economic debate among the political class has become centred on redistributive policies and more and increasingly onerous regulation. Public institutions have adopted a short-sighted approach of ever-increasing fiscal expansion amidst a backdrop of lax monetary policy to tackle the economic malaise.
The UK presents a telling case study of these challenges. The country’s public expenditure increased by around a fifth over the course of the recent coronavirus pandemic and this trend shows no sign of abating. Average annual productivity growth between 2007 and 2019 has been a necrotic 0.2%. The Office for National Statistics estimates that if productivity had continued to grow at 2% in the last decade, as it did in the three decades before the financial crisis, the average worker in the UK would be £5,000 a year richer. Consequently, median incomes in the UK have fallen below the average of developed countries, including Norway, Switzerland and the US—and by 2030 are projected to fall below those of Poland.
Economic growth must remain a top priority. With ageing populations and increasing demands for more and improved public services, a lack of growth is putting immense pressure on living standards. Neglecting growth will force us further down a path of higher taxes and spending. The potential consequences of this extend beyond our citizens to our global standing, jeopardising our ability to counter regimes that seek to undermine the foundations of a free and open society.
